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25 August 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #604
War in Ukraine: Day 547
By Rishika Yadav
War on Ground
On 24 August, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, congratulated Ukraine's Independence Day, acknowledging its resilient people. Celebrating the 32nd anniversary, he emphasizes the fight for independence, thanking soldiers, families, and supporters. He honored those lost and underscored the unity against adversity.
On 24 August, according to Ukrinform, Ukraine's Defence Forces, led by Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Main Intelligence Directorate, planned to extend actions beyond strikes on occupied Crimea, including a ground operation. Budanov emphasized that these actions aim to instil hope and resilience among the population, with an assurance that Crimea’s liberation is on the horizon. He stressed that diplomacy alone lacks effectiveness without tangible force.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 24 August, according to TASS, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, reaffirmed Russia’s willingness to rejoin the grain deal with Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General, but only if all obligations to Russia are met. This was conveyed during their meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, cited unfulfilled promises by Western countries in the deal.
On 24 August, according to TASS, Putin conveyed condolences to the families of those killed in the crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Embraer jet. During a meeting with Denis Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Putin described the incident as a tragic event. The crash took the lives of individuals associated with the private military company Wagner.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 24 August, at the White House, Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor, hosted a meeting with national security advisors from France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. On Ukraine’s Independence Day, they reiterated support against Russia’s aggression, discussed ways to hold Russia accountable, and emphasized keeping Russia's assets immobilized until reparations are paid.
On 24 August, according to the Government of Norway, Jonas Gahr Store, Norway’s Prime Minister, affirmed support for Ukraine’s modern air defence system development, including donating F-16 fighter jets. The donation will be coordinated with allies, reinforcing Ukraine’s military capabilities and ongoing cooperation. Bjorn Arild Gram, US Defence Minister, emphasizes Norway’s continued substantial military aid to Ukraine. Norway will also provide anti-aircraft missiles for Ukraine’s air defence system, IRIS-T, as part of ongoing support against Russian threats.
On 24 August, on Ukraine’s Independence Day, the US took new actions against entities and individuals linked to human rights violations since Russia’s invasion. The Department of State imposed sanctions on two entities and 11 individuals involved in transferring Ukraine’s children to camps promoting Russia’s indoctrination. Visa restrictions will be applied to three Russia-installed officials for abusing Ukraine’s minors in forced deportations. These actions demonstrated the US commitment to accountability for Russia’s abuses in Ukraine, in line with Executive Order 14024 and the Immigration and Nationality Act.
On 24 August, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President, welcomed the audience and the Ukraine’s Freedom Orchestra at a Berlin concert. The orchestra, composed of refugees and Ukraine’s European orchestra members, sends a musical message of peace and freedom. Steinmeier praised the initiative’s significance, highlighted by Olena Selenska’s patronage, and acknowledged musicians involved in fighting Russia’s invasion. He celebrated Ukraine’s Independence Day amid the ongoing conflict, expressing solidarity and admiration from Germany. Steinmeier affirmed support for Ukraine, including its path to the EU.
On 24 August, in an interview, Marcus Faber, a German Free Democratic Party lawmaker, stated that Putin’s presumed death is a short-term strength but a long-term weakness. Faber emphasized Putin’s ability to eliminate opponents within Russia and noted that the incident underscores that there can be no compromise with him. He highlighted that the Wagner Group’s infrastructure may persist under new leadership, maintaining its operations.
On 24 August, European leaders cautioned on Prigozhin’s end following a private jet crash. Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, warned against hasty conclusions and noted widespread suspicion of Kremlin involvement. Olivier Veran, French spokesperson, cited “reasonable doubts” about the crash, while the EU refrained from assumptions. Zelenskyy denied involvement and suggests Kremlin responsibility.
The Global Fallouts
On 24 August, according to The Wall Street Journal, the impact of Prigozhin’s presumed death was significant in Africa, where Wagner’s involvement in autocratic regimes advanced the Kremlin’s influence and challenged the US. Since 2018, Wagner has extended to the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, and Mali, amassing a force of around 5,000, close to US troop levels. His death prompted inquiries and concerns about a smooth transition. Wagner expanded into mining and political consulting, boosting Prigozhin’s wealth and funding Kremlin’s activities. Putin assured continuity post-mutiny; now, the challenge is rebranding the organization after its founder’s authority.
References
“Congratulations by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Independence Day of Ukraine,” President of Ukraine, 24 August 2023
“Ukraine’s intel chief says ground operations to be expected in Crimea,” Ukrinform, 24 August 2023
“Lavrov reiterates terms of Russia’s return to grain deal to UN Secretary General — MFA,” TASS, 24 August 2023
“Putin expresses condolences to families of people killed in crash of Prigozhin’s jet,” TASS, 24 August 2023
“Readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Meeting with Quint National Security Advisors,” The White House, 24 August 2023
“Norway plans to donate F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine,” Government of Norway, 24 August 2023
“Norway to Send Missiles for Ukraine's Air Defenсe System IRIS-T,” European Pravda, 24 August 2023
“Imposing Sanctions and Visa Restrictions on Individuals and Entities Russia to Promote Accountability for Forced Transfer and Deportation of Children During Russia’s Illegal War Against Ukraine,” US Department of State, 24 August 2023
“Concert of the Ukrainian Freedom Orchestra,” Der Bundesprasident, 24 August 2023
“'There can be no compromise with Putin,' German lawmaker says,” Deutsche Welle, 24 August 2023
“Europe wary of 'quick conclusions' over Prigozhin plane crash,” Belga news agency, 24 August 2023
Joe Parkinson, “Prighozin’s Death Could Hit Wagner’s Operations in Africa,” The Wall Street Journal, 24 August 2023
In Brief
By Genesy Balasingam
FRANCE
Nîmes is a hotspot for drug violence
On 24 August, an 18-year-old man was shot dead in the southern French city of Nimes, days after a 10-year-old youngster was slain by gunfire in a drug-related attack. Both shootings occurred in the city’s Pissevin neighbourhood, which has been beset by drug violence. Gerald Darmanin, Interior Minister, spoke of a “tit-for-tat attack between drug dealers.” Yoda and DZ Mafia, two competing gangs, are claimed to be behind the majority of the shootings in northern regions of the Mediterranean port city, notably in high-rise buildings. Smaller regional cities such as Nimes are now becoming a hotspot for the drug war. (Paul Kirby, “Nîmes shootings: Two killings in three days in small French city,” BBC, 24 August 2023)
POLAND
Tusk is the dangerous threat to Poland’s security: says Prime Minister
On 24 August, according to Politico, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party put forth four questions to a referendum that will be held on the same day as the 15 October parliamentary election. It also stated that anyone in favor of accepting illegal migrants should vote for Poland’s opposition parties. The referendum questions are set to be approved on 24 August by the lower house of parliament, where PiS holds a narrow majority. The questions are designed to elicit public support. Under campaign finance laws, the referendum is also regarded independently from the election, allowing the ruling party to increase spending ahead of the vote. The PiS and the state-controlled media have been supporting the government and have claimed that if Donald Tusk, Former President of the European Council, regains power, he will jeopardize Poland’s national security and economic prosperity. Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister, stated that Tusk is the most dangerous threat to our security. Tusk has called for a boycott of the referendum wherein it will need voters refusing the referendum ballot while Morawiecki slammed Tusk’s boycott proposal as “undemocratic”. (Wojciech Kosc, “Poland’s ruling party throws the opposition a referendum curveball,” Politico, 24 August 2023)
THE NETHERLANDS
Wopke Hoekstra to be Netherlands next EU commissioner
On 24 August, the Netherlands is set to pick Wopke Hoekstra, Foreign Minister as its next European commissioner after the retirement of Frans Timmermans, climate czar. Hoekstra, whose cabinet is set to hold elections in November, would take over for Timmermans, who announced his return to national politics in July. The Commission announced that Maro Efovi will take up Timmermans’ duties as executive vice president, including control of the European Green Deal’s implementation in Europe. The European People’s Party has fought a political battle against Timmermans’ environmental agenda, organising a rebellion in the European Parliament against the Commission’s nature restoration bill, which narrowly failed to overturn the planned legislation. The candidacy of Hoekstra for any climate-related position would be contentious in Brussels. Dutch political operatives have mentioned liberal ex-finance minister Sigrid Kaag as a possible candidate for the position of commissioner. (Nicholas Vinocur, Jacopo Barigazzi, “The Netherlands set to name Wopke Hoekstra as EU commissioner,” Politico, 24 August 2023)
THE UK
Rishi Sunak alleged to have violated Parliament standards
On 24 August, an inquiry concluded that Rishi Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister, had violated parliament’s standards guidelines by failing to properly declare his wife’s interest in a childcare concern that stood to gain from government policies. This investigation was initiated in April after receiving indications of a possible rule violation. Sunak was asked about a government childcare project that would provide incentive payments to anyone who signed up as new child-minders through one of six designated organizations. Akshata Murty, Sunak’s wife, an investor in Koru Kids, one of the organizations, was scheduled to gain from the government’s trial program. Sunak, however, did not disclose his interest to the committee. During the investigation, Daniel Greenberg, UK’s Parliamentary Commissioner discovered that Sunak’s omission to declare his wife’s ties constituted a violation of the regulations governing MPs’ conduct. However, he concluded that the failure was caused by “confusion’” between the registration of interests and the statement of interests. Greenberg stated that the breach would be remedied by “rectification” processes, which typically entails MPs apologizing and addressing the breach. (Claudia Chiappa, “Rishi Sunak broke rules by failing to properly declare wife’s shares in a childcare firm,” Politico, 24 August 2023)
REGIONAL
EU’s climate aspirations off track with Paris Agreement’s climate targets
On 24 August, Euronews reported that according to CAN Europe and the Global Legal Action Network (GLAN), the European Commission’s annual emission allowances (AEAs) for EU member states are unambitious and violate EU environmental law. The non-governmental organizations have requested an internal review of a European Commission Implementing Decision which establishes annual emission permits for each EU member state in sectors such as road transport, buildings, agriculture, waste, and small industries. They claim that the allowances, as well as the EU’s overall climate aspirations, are “alarmingly off-track” with the Paris Agreement’s climate targets and fail to respect fundamental human rights. The Commission informed Euronews that it will evaluate the two NGOs’ request for an internal review, but denied that the Implementing Decision violates fundamental rights. However, CAN Europe and GLAN argue that falling climate aspirations jeopardize basic rights. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “NGOs demand review of 'insufficient' EU emission reduction targets,” Euronews, 24 August 2023)
Campaigners challenge EU over climate policy
On 24 August, environmentalists took the first step in suing the European Commission over a program to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, claiming it falls short of Europe’s “fair share” in combating climate change. Climate Action Network Europe and the non-profit Global Legal Action Network have formally requested that Brussels alter a legislation dictating how quickly EU countries must reduce emissions in areas including agriculture and transportation. The EU aims at reducing the bloc’s net emissions by 55 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. That is one of the most aggressive climate goals of any big economy, but environmentalists want it raised to 65 per cent. The Commission has 16 weeks to respond to the request, following which the organisations are eligible to file a legal challenge with the EU’s highest court. (Kate Abnett, “Campaigners threaten EU with legal action over climate policy,” Reuters, 24 August 2023)
ECB in a dilemma over interest rate hikes
On 24 August, Euronews reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) is at a crossroads to determine whether to continue its cycle of interest rate hikes in September, as eurozone businesses face steep losses in output and new orders. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed that the EU’s business activity had reached its lowest level since 2020, owing to a severe drop in the services sector and a sustained decline in manufacturing. Germany, the world’s economic powerhouse, has been hurt the worst. The ECB has consistently stated that interest rates will continue to climb until inflationary pressures on consumer prices subside, but economists believe that slow economic growth may divide the Governing Council. Some ECB governors are concerned that further tightening of monetary policy could push the eurozone into recession next year. The impact on businesses demonstrates that the ECB has been overly tolerant of the detrimental impact of its own rate hikes on the economy. Other experts feel the ECB’s data-based strategy is problematic since there is a time lag between adopting monetary policy and seeing its influence on economic data. (Mared Gwyn Jones, “Explained: The ECB’s rate-hike dilemma as eurozone business activity falls,” Euronews, 24 August 2023)